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Optimistic Realism

Stockdale Paradox

When is this ever going to end? Is the pandemic ever going to end? I hear and feel the , the laments, the struggle as there seems to be no end in sight of variants and restrictions and protocols, of people getting sick and people dying. Who doesn't feel fatigue as this drags on and on? As I did from the beginning of all this, I continue to look for helpful thoughts and reflections that are an antidote to the pandemic fatigue. I recently learned about what's called the Stockdale Paradox. An Admiral in the US Navy, James Stockdale survived 8 years as a POW in a North Vietnamese prison camp. When asked who of his fellow prisoners struggled to make it out alive, he replied, “The optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, ‘We're going to be out by Christmas.' And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they'd say, ‘We're going to be out by Easter.' And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken ….” So, the “Stockdale Paradox” is the ability to hold two opposing but equally true things at once:

  1. You must have faith that you will prevail in the end.
  2. At the same time you must confront the brutal facts of your current reality.

I struggle to get my mind and heart around the lesson of the Stockdale Paradox because by I am an optimist and I do have faith and find that all will be well or as the saying goes: “Everything will be okay in the end. If it's not okay, it's not the end.” One of my favorite authors, Pastor Nadia Bolz Weber says this about the pandemic and the lessons learned from the Stockdale Paradox:

“I wonder – what is healthier for us: to keep acting and wishing and hoping it's over soon and then having our hearts broken over and over – OR – maybe just assuming it is going to be years of this and acting accordingly. Planting gardens. to cook more stuff. Meeting more neighbors. Living the life our dogs want us to live. Because then if it DOES end soon or even soon-ish, we get to be overwhelmed with joy and surprise. But if it lasts for years we are prepared (kind of) and able to live each day to the fullest possible extent. I am just once again aware of how much my mental health depends on accepting reality. Not endorsing it, but accepting it. Because actual reality is also the only place where actual joy is to be found. If joy is delayed until a preferred future comes about, we set ourselves up for despair. But if there is hope in THIS day. Joy in THIS reality. This life. This body. This heart, then certainly we can prevail.”

— Pastor Nadia Bolz Weber

I find that to be a worthy challenge to be an optimist AND a realist. To learn to hold those two opposing but equally true things at once. We can grieve all that we've been through and also find the strength to deal with the ongoing reality. We can grieve those we've lost. We can lament, and fight and struggle with our pandemic fatigue while also finding hope in today, in the reality here and now as we seek to live each day to the fullest.

“You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

— Admiral James Stockdale
Author Info: Peggy Roberts Verified Senior Staff
Chaplain Peggy Roberts is Vice President of the Life Department here at Beatitudes. Peggy was ordained in the Presbyterian Church (USA) and has served in pastoral ministry as well as being a hospice chaplain.

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